Gold’s near-term outlook will largely depend on signals from the US Federal Reserve, with the precious metal potentially testing the $4,250-$4,200 zone if the central bank adopts a more hawkish stance, according to Kotak Securities’ commodity research. Gold has fallen nearly 10 per cent from its late-August peak of around $4,700 to about $4,250, as stronger-than-expected inflation data increased expectations of further rate hikes. The report said the Federal Open Market Committee’s updated dot plot and the Fed Chair’s press conference could be more important for gold than the immediate rate decision, as markets have already largely priced in a hike. A projection showing three or more additional rate increases through 2027 could push gold towards $4,200 and potentially $4,000 if real yields rise significantly, while a projection indicating only one further increase could support a recovery towards $4,400-$4,500. The report also highlighted the US Treasury’s long-term bond buyback programme and the Bank of Japan’s upcoming policy decision as factors that could influence bond yields and the US dollar, and consequently gold prices. In the domestic market, October gold futures were consolidating around Rs 1,51,750, with immediate resistance near Rs 1,53,250 and support at Rs 1,48,470. A sustained move above resistance could open the way towards Rs 1,57,130 and Rs 1,60,345, while a break below Rs 1,48,470 could weaken the medium-term trend further. Overall, gold is expected to remain range-bound with a cautious bias until it decisively breaks either side of the current trading range.
Fed Dot Plot, Powell’s Tone Key to Gold’s Next Move: Kotak Securities
